What each side tried, what it got, and what could come next. Every scenario says what it assumes and what would show it coming true, and we mark each one when its review date arrives, including the ones we get wrong.
Republicans redrew maps mid-decade to hold the House. Did it work, and who redraws next?
What was
At President Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map in 2025 to give the party a shot at five more seats. Republicans in eight states ended up redrawing district lines over the past year. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
California answered with Proposition 50, a Democratic redistricting meant to offset the Texas map. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
A Supreme Court ruling that weakened Voting Rights Act protections for majority-Black districts set off more redraws in the South. Republicans hoped to gain as many as four seats in Florida, two in Ohio and one each in Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina and Tennessee. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
In all but one of the redrawn districts, Trump would have won more than 54% of the vote in 2024, according to AP estimates. In normal years, that is a fairly safe seat. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
What is
In Texas, Democrats won four of the five seats Republicans had shifted their way, according to AP race calls, including the seats of Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez. NPR ↗Associated Press via PBS News ↗
In Florida, Democrats Kathy Castor, Jared Moskowitz and Pia Dandiya won in districts redrawn to help Republicans. In Alabama, Rep. Shomari Figures held a redrawn district by more than 7 points, and in North Carolina, Rep. Don Davis held his. NPR ↗
Republicans did better where they redrew after the Supreme Court ruling: they narrowly won Tennessee’s redrawn 9th District and are favored to pick up a Louisiana seat after a runoff. NPR ↗
The maps assumed the 2024 coalition would hold. In the AP Voter Poll, about a third of Hispanic voters backed the Republican in their House race, compared with roughly 4 in 10 who voted for Trump in 2024. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
The fight is now moving to Democratic states. Maryland voters approved an amendment that makes it easier for the Democratic legislature to redraw, and New York Democrats have taken a first step toward redistricting before 2028. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
Still unsettled: Several House races are still being counted, including some in redrawn districts. We will update the seat-by-seat record when they are called.
How Democrats see it
Eric Holder, who chairs the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said the Trump redistricting plan “was systematically dismantled. And given the opportunity, voters instead chose to elect a new Democratic majority.” Associated Press via PBS News ↗
How Republicans see it
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is among the Republicans who say the party would have done worse without the new maps. NPR ↗
An election-law scholar’s view
“It’s foolish to presume that the electorate in one year is going to look like the electorate in another in a time of radical swings in public opinion,” said Justin Levitt of Loyola Law School. “I think it is likely that some line-drawers got cocky.” Associated Press via PBS News ↗
What could be
Possible paths, not a single forecast. They can overlap.
Democrats pick up the pen
Democrats, stronger in statehouses after Nov. 3, redraw maps before 2028 in states they control, starting with Maryland and New York, and argue they are answering what Republicans began.
This assumes
Democratic leaders judge the political cost to be low, since Republicans went first.
State courts allow the new maps to stand.
Watch for
Maryland’s legislature takes up a new congressional map.
New York completes the next steps toward redistricting.
Republicans file suits against the new maps.
Open Review by Dec. 31, 2027
The South keeps redrawing
Republican-led Southern states use the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act ruling to redraw before 2028, betting that a presidential-year electorate will look more like 2024’s than 2026’s.
This assumes
Republican legislators read 2026 as a wave year, not a lasting shift.
The results in Tennessee and Louisiana encourage more redraws.
Watch for
Governors call special sessions on congressional maps.
The outcome of Louisiana’s House runoff.
New lawsuits over the elimination of majority-Black districts.
Open Review by Dec. 31, 2027
A truce
After maps drawn for one party failed in a wave year, leaders on both sides decide mid-decade redistricting is too risky, and pressure builds for limits through state ballot measures or federal law.
This assumes
Party strategists conclude that thin, stretched majorities can collapse in a wave.
Voters keep rejecting redraws when asked, as in Missouri.
Watch for
Bills or ballot measures limiting mid-decade redistricting gain support from both parties.
States that had planned redraws stand down.
Open Review by Dec. 31, 2027
United States | updated Nov. 6, 2026
After the midterms: two years of divided government
Democrats now hold Congress and Trump holds the veto. What does each side do with the power it has?
What was
Republicans entered 2026 holding the White House, the Senate and the House. The New York Times ↗
Trump spent weeks asking voters to treat the midterms as a vote on him and held rallies almost daily in the final month. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
What is
Democrats won control of both chambers on Nov. 3, flipping at least seven Republican-held Senate seats and more than two dozen House districts. Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi were still too close to call on Nov. 5. Fox News ↗Al Jazeera and the Associated Press ↗
In the AP Voter Poll, about three-quarters of voters called the economy “not so good” or “poor,” and roughly half called corruption and the cost of living crucial to their vote. Associated Press via PBS News ↗
Trump said he would veto “insane” Democratic bills, but predicted that after “a couple of months of vetoes” the two sides would work together. Fox News ↗
Democrats plan wide oversight of the administration, including the Epstein records, the president’s business interests and immigration enforcement. NPR ↗
Speaker Mike Johnson said he will not seek to lead House Republicans in the new Congress. Associated Press ↗
Possible 2028 Republican candidates gave different explanations for the loss: Vice President JD Vance blamed the war with Iran, Sen. Ted Cruz the cost of living, and Gov. Ron DeSantis pointed to Florida as the state that held the line. Fox News ↗
Still unsettled: Final House seat counts, the Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi and both parties’ leadership elections are still pending. The new Congress convenes in January 2027.
How Democrats see it
A House Democrat told NPR the party “cannot nibble around the edges” and must take big swings on affordability even if the bills are vetoed, so it can tell voters in 2028 what it would do with the White House. Rep. Robert Garcia, expected to chair the House Oversight Committee, put the oversight agenda in two words: “LAWYER UP.” NPR ↗NPR (2) ↗
How Republicans see it
Senate Majority Leader John Thune wrote that “Senate Republicans will not stand idly by as the far-left, socialist wing of the Democrat Party attempts to unwind everything we’ve done,” and said they would work with Trump “to stop the worst impulses of Democrat extremism.” Associated Press via PBS News ↗
What could be
Possible paths, not a single forecast. They can overlap.
A veto standoff
Democrats pass bills on prices and costs, Trump vetoes them, and neither side can override the other. Both parties run on that record in 2028.
This assumes
Democrats remain well short of the two-thirds majorities needed to override a veto.
Both sides see more to gain from the fight than from a deal.
Watch for
The first veto of the new Congress.
Democrats’ first major bill on costs.
Any attempt to override a veto.
Open Review by June 30, 2027
Narrow deals
After early vetoes, Trump and congressional Democrats bargain on a few issues where both feel pressure from voters, as Trump predicted on election night.
This assumes
Prices stay the top concern for voters in both parties.
Trump values signed laws more than vetoes.
Watch for
A bill passed with support from both parties and signed into law.
Meetings between Trump and Democratic leaders.
Republicans breaking with Trump on key votes.
Open Review by June 30, 2027
Oversight takes over
Investigations, subpoenas and court fights over what the administration must hand over become the main business of the new Congress.
This assumes
Democrats believe oversight helps them more than legislation that would be vetoed.
The administration resists subpoenas in court.
Watch for
The first subpoenas from House committees.
Claims of executive privilege and the court cases that follow.
Whether an impeachment resolution is introduced.
Open Review by June 30, 2027
The Republican succession fight
The race for the 2028 nomination starts early and splits Republicans in Congress between loyalty to Trump and distance from his record on the war and prices.
This assumes
Possible 2028 candidates keep offering different explanations for the loss.
Trump stays active in choosing the party’s direction.
Watch for
House Republicans’ choice of a new leader.
Votes in which Republicans break with the White House.
Early 2028 campaign moves by Vance, Cruz, DeSantis or others.
Open Review by Sept. 30, 2027
Europe | updated Nov. 6, 2026
Europe’s youth protest wave
Young people are marching in France, Germany and beyond. Does the movement fade, turn into a labor fight, or turn into votes?
What was
In France, the protests began in September as a movement of high school students angry about crumbling buildings, teacher shortages and a university admissions system seen as unfair to poorer students. Labor unions and others opposed to President Emmanuel Macron then joined. Associated Press via NPR ↗
France’s government counted about 550,000 protesters on Oct. 17, a day that ended in some of the country’s worst rioting in years, then 410,000 on Oct. 24 and 320,000 on Oct. 31. Associated Press via NPR ↗CNN ↗
In Serbia, a student-led movement defeated longtime leader Aleksandar Vucic in a parliamentary election on Oct. 25. Associated Press ↗
On Oct. 31, the German group Gen Z regelt (“Gen Z takes charge”) marched in 34 cities for more spending on education and health and against compulsory military service. The marches were largely peaceful, but looting and clashes followed in Frankfurt, Cologne and Hamburg. Reuters ↗CNN ↗
What is
France’s movement grew again this week. On Nov. 5, unions joined with a nationwide strike, and the Interior Ministry counted about 575,000 protesters, the most so far. The CGT union claimed close to 1.6 million. France 24 ↗Anadolu via Bernama ↗
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has called a “social conference” with unions and employers for Nov. 9. Anadolu via Bernama ↗
In Germany, the national school students’ organization has distanced itself from Gen Z regelt and plans its own day of protest on Nov. 20. Reuters ↗
In Serbia, the election winners have not yet taken over the government, while several officials of the old government have been detained. Associated Press ↗
Still unsettled: Turnout figures from governments and organizers differ widely, so we give both. Who is behind each national movement, and how much they coordinate, is still being reported.
How the organizers see it
“What matters most to us is better support for the health and education systems. We are against compulsory military service and we are in favour of a fairer distribution of the burden,” said Gen Z regelt spokesperson Lina Friedrich. In France, CGT leader Sophie Binet said: “Nothing will stop us.” Reuters ↗Anadolu via Bernama ↗
How governments see it
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt blamed “violent left-wing groups and troublemakers from migrant communities” for the violence, without giving details. Hesse’s interior minister, Roman Poseck, said: “France must not be held up as a model in this regard.” In France, the government has answered with a negotiating table, the Nov. 9 social conference. CNN ↗Reuters ↗Anadolu via Bernama ↗
What could be
Possible paths, not a single forecast. They can overlap.
It fades
Turnout falls as governments offer concessions and violence after dark costs the movement public sympathy.
This assumes
The Nov. 9 social conference in France produces offers that unions can accept.
Rioting continues to overshadow the peaceful marches.
Watch for
What comes out of the Nov. 9 conference.
Turnout on the next national protest days.
Polls on public support for the protesters.
Open Review by Dec. 31, 2026
It becomes a labor fight
Unions take over the momentum, demands shift to wages and the minimum wage, and strikes replace weekend marches. Students become one group among many.
This assumes
Unions see more leverage in strikes than in talks.
The cost of living stays the shared complaint.
Watch for
New national strike days called by the unions.
Government decisions on the minimum wage.
Whether student groups keep their own demands and voice.
Open Review by Jan. 31, 2027
It turns into votes
Following Serbia’s example, the movement turns to elections: candidate lists, registration drives and parties competing for young voters, with France’s presidential election due in spring 2027.
This assumes
Organizers decide that street pressure alone has run its course.
Serbia’s result shows that a youth movement can win at the ballot box.
Watch for
Youth groups forming electoral lists or backing candidates.
Registration drives aimed at first-time voters.
Established parties adopting the movement’s demands.
Open Review by April 30, 2027
Track record
Every scenario we have published, in order of its review date. When one comes due, we mark it here and explain the call in its topic above.