Gas is $4.27 and diesel $6.35 heading into Election Day, up 41% and 71% in a year
Gasoline has fallen for five straight weeks. Diesel has risen for two. Refiners are reporting surging margins, and the next official price data lands on Election Day.
The average U.S. price of regular gasoline was $4.269 a gallon in the week of Oct. 26, up $1.23 from a year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration. Diesel, which moves freight and runs farm equipment, averaged $6.352, up 71%. Prices began climbing after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 and Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Refinery outages in Russia and Saudi Arabia have since squeezed fuel supply further.
The war that began Feb. 28 and Iran’s strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz cut oil flows through the world’s most important energy chokepoint.
Reported · CNBCFuel supply tightened further as Ukrainian drones hit Russian refineries and Houthi attacks struck Saudi refineries; Wood Mackenzie says crude still leaves the Gulf “at a steep freight premium,” but diesel and jet fuel largely do not.
Reported · CNBC, Wood MackenzieRegular gasoline averaged $4.269 and diesel $6.352 in the week of Oct. 26, up 40.7% and 70.8% from a year earlier.
Confirmed · EIA weekly surveyChevron’s downstream earnings more than quadrupled from a year earlier to $4.9 billion; Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Exxon reported sharply higher refining margins.
Reported · Company results, via CNBCMarkets are pricing the risk of renewed fighting after the vote: Brent crude rose more than 13% in October.
Reported · CNBC
Confirmed = primary document · Reported = news reports or quoted statements · Suspected = one analyst or unnamed insiders · Disputed = reported and denied
Oil refiners and integrated majors, whose profits have climbed back toward levels last seen in the 2022 energy shock.
Farmers and truckers paying for diesel, air travelers facing higher fares, and households paying more for anything shipped by truck.
The number is not the whole story.
The EIA figure is the weekly U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline, all formulations, and of on-highway diesel, in dollars per gallon, including taxes.
Gasoline is $1.23 (40.7%) above a year ago and $1.33 (45.4%) above the week before the war. Diesel is $2.63 (70.8%) above a year ago. At the 2022 midterms, gas averaged $3.80, according to AAA data cited by CNBC.
Gasoline has eased since September, but diesel is rising again. Because diesel moves goods, its rise can keep pushing up prices for food and shipped products even while drivers see small relief at the pump.
Verified baseline: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update ↗ · US Household Pulse, gas prices ↗
What came before?
In the week before the war, on Feb. 23, regular gasoline averaged $2.937 and diesel $3.809. GasBuddy had predicted in December that 2026 would be the cheapest year for gas since 2020. Prices jumped within two weeks of the Feb. 28 strikes.
What is reported?
Gasoline peaked at $4.478 in the week of Sept. 21 and has fallen for five straight weeks to $4.269. Diesel peaked at $6.529 the same week, eased, and has risen for the last two weeks to $6.352.
What remains open?
The EIA publishes its next weekly prices on Nov. 3, Election Day. Wood Mackenzie expects physical tightness to last well into 2027 even if a Hormuz deal is reached, because fuel inventories are so depleted.
Compare the Nov. 3 EIA release with the Oct. 26 figures.
BACKGROUND3 dated sources · expand ↓
- EIA weekly survey: regular gasoline $2.937 a gallon and diesel $3.809, the last reading before the war began. EIA ↗
- Gasoline and diesel both peaked for the year so far, at $4.478 and $6.529 a gallon in the EIA weekly survey. EIA ↗
- EIA weekly survey: gasoline $4.269 and diesel $6.352, up 40.7% and 70.8% from the same week a year earlier. EIA ↗
What we'll check next: Compare the Nov. 3 EIA release with the Oct. 26 figures.
Why it matters
Fuel costs feed into the price of almost everything that is shipped, which is why diesel matters more to inflation than its share of household spending suggests. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says gas and diesel are on course to be the highest ever recorded on an election day.
What remains unresolved
Does gasoline keep easing while diesel climbs, and do prices jump again if strikes on Iran resume after Tuesday?
Sources are labeled by tier: Primary (documents and official data), Reporting (news organizations), Analysis (research and commentary). Attribution belongs to each named publisher.
Primary U.S. Energy Information Administration — Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update ↗Primary US Household Pulse — Gas prices, with inflation-adjusted history ↗Reporting CNBC — Gas and diesel prices ahead of the midterms ↗Reporting CNBC — Refining profits surge ↗